Quote:
Originally Posted by retirebatam
USD to SGD
If we look at the exchange rate history 3 months ago, USD$1 = S$1.37
Then over the next few weeks it has risen to the highest of USD$1 = S$1.439
Then until last few days see USD keep depreciating until today the exchange rate gone back again to USD$1 = S$1.37 (almost same as 3 months ago)
SGD to Rupiah
Similiarly few months ago the exchange rate is S$1 = 10516 rupiah
But when the exchange rate of USD against SGD has returned back to original exchange rate today, the rupiah did not return back to the rate of 10516 rupiah.
But instead it remains at S$1 = 11,372 rupiah which is a depreciation of about 850 rupiah per sing dollar after the 3 months period
According to news there will still be one more USA interest rate increase in December and the sing to rupiah exchange rate may hit 11500 as what I predicted few weeks ago. 
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The flutuation of the rupiah is rather unique such that when US dollars depreciate, other currency like sing dollar, ringgit, etc have recovered back to almost its original exchange rate.
But the rupiah surprisingly remain stagnant at the devalued exchange rate. This will be a double blow to the rupiah should there be another 风吹草动 (another sign of trouble).
The central bank of USA aka federal reserve provide a safe and stable financial system in the country. USA is now facing very high inflation and at a time it reach about 9% in June 2022.
Their target is to bring down the inflation to 2% where it used to be. In order to bring down the inflation, they will have to raise the interest rate again continuously to slow down the economy.
But with higher interest rates, the probability of a recession also increases, leading to layoffs, fewer jobs, and decreased consumer spending.
Last month, I have predicted that the exchange rate of the rupiah in December may hit 11500 and it did materialised. 
Above is the exchange rate movement of sing to rupiah for the past 1 month up till today.
We noticed that when federal reserve implemented a rate hike of 0.75% last month November, it has caused a depreciation of about 300 rupiah.
These few days, the federal reserve are meeting to discuss about the inflation issue and expected to announce another rate hike on Wednesday which is
tomorrow.
The current exchange rate is about 1 sing dollar to 11,586 rupiah
Following below is my prediction of the value of rupiah with different increase in interest rate by USA federal reserve:
Interest rate increased by 0.25% - rupiah may devalue to 11,650
Interest rate increased by 0.50% - rupiah may devalue to 11,750
Interest rate increased by 0.75% - rupiah may devalue to 11,850
Now even before the announcement of US rate hike, ringgit and rupiah are facing great pressure and ringgit today has dropped to RM329.06 per sing dollar.
Investors are now standby to buy more US dollar and dump other currencies..